We have all seen firsthand firsthand how economic downturns can impact retail. We must accept that Australians face a significant financial challenge in the immediate future, and retailers must adapt their product offerings to these times. 
 

Here are the RBA Australian Economic Forecast: Labor Market, Consumer Spending, and Inflation Trends (2024-2026)

As you can see, unemployment is expected to remain stable, and wage growth will be less than inflation, so household consumption will be below inflation. As such, the consumer and, as such, the retailer are looking at challenging times.

Understanding Consumer Behaviour in Tough Times

During economic uncertainty, consumers tighten their belts and try to cut money where they can, but they don't stop spending entirely. Instead, they prioritise:

• Essential items
• Products that offer value for money
• Small, affordable luxuries

Targeting your inventory with these priorities can help weather the storm as a retailer.

I have seen firsthand how retailers in one field, like newsagencies, have moved successfully into totally unrelated fields like liquor, groceries and clothing, so accept an idea that is out of the box.

Top Product Categories to Consider

1. Children's Essentials

Parents always prioritise their children's needs, which they rarely cut down. Consider stocking:

• Children's clothing (especially basics) - Clothing, in general, has proven to be an item that most retailers can get into. Kids need a constantly changing wardrobe.
• Particularly, look at baby products.
• Educational toys and books
• Children art supplies

My experience talking to retailers Is that children's clothing maintains steady sales even when adult fashion retailers struggle.

2. Affordable Luxuries

People still want to treat themselves, just on a smaller scale. Look into:

• Cosmetics and skincare - Women do not cut down much on cosmitics.
• Gourmet food items
• Small home decor pieces

Tip: Create attractive displays of these items near your checkout to encourage impulse buys.

3. Home Maintenance Products

As people spend more time at home, home improvement spending goes up:

• Tools 
• Paint and decorating materials
• Gardening essentials
• House cleaning supplies

4. Health and Wellness Items

Health becomes a top priority during uncertain times. Consider:

• Vitamins and supplements - I wonder why more retailers overlook these products.
• Fitness equipment and books.

5. Pet Supplies

Pet owners rarely skimp on their furry friends. Stock up on:

• Toys and treats - particularly dogs
• Pet care items and books.

Pricing and Promotion Strategies

To make these product categories work for your business:

1. Emphasise value: Highlight cost-per-use or long-term savings.
2. Bundle products: Create value packs that offer slight discounts. Bundles work well in difficult times.

Leveraging Technology

Your point-of-sale system can be a powerful tool in navigating these challenges. Use it to:

• Track inventory trends
• Identify your best-selling items
• Manage promotions effectively

Personal insight: Our POS software has helped retailers quickly identify their product mix that sells now based on real-time sales data, which is a crucial advantage in rapidly changing markets. This information is not theoretical but honest facts about what is happening in your business. It takes you one second to find out, see here.

The Bottom Line

Success in retail isn't about being the past, but about the future, the most adaptable to change always win.

Adjust your product mix to the current times, emphasise necessities and affordable treats. Really dig into the information from your POS system - it's full of useful information about what your customers buy from you.

These approaches have helped many retailers I've worked with stay strong during tough economic times. You can do it too.

We must look at 2024 realistically. It will be an Olympic year, but its already starting as very violent. There are 183 armed conflicts in the world, the highest figure in 30 years. 

In 2024, the economic conditions will remain challenging. According to forecasts from economists, economic conditions are expected to continue putting pressure on consumer spending. We can expect higher unemployment, inflation and higher living costs. This will make Australians more careful about discretionary purchases. This is concerning for retailers.

Key challenges on the horizon include:

• Cautious consumer spending across significant shopping periods as costs of living increase
• The Reserve Bank has made it clear it would bring us into a recession rather than see inflation get out of control. Those who remember the 1970s will know what they are worried about.
• Flat growth is anticipated in the year's first half as economic uncertainty lingers.
• Ongoing impact from issues like rising mortgage payments limiting consumers' budgets

Retailers may face these realistic factors while no one can predict the future. We must adapt.

Embrace technology to enhance the customer experience

There is no choice; everyone is going into more technology. Working smarter is not an option. 

POS systems provide benefits like:

• Quick transactions so customers spend less time waiting in line
• Loyalty programs to reward regulars and encourage return visits
• Inventory management to ensure the right products are in stock
• Analytics to understand buying patterns and tailor your offerings

Upgrading outdated cash registers with a modern, full-featured POS demonstrates your commitment to customers. It helps create a smooth, enjoyable shopping trip despite tight budgets.

Reach more customers through an omnichannel approach

The public is going more online. They now live online.

Another way to boost sales amid economic uncertainty involves leveraging multiple shopping channels. While your physical store remains vital, expanding your omnichannel strategy opens new opportunities.

Adding services like:

• Click and collect so people can order online and pick up in-store
• Home delivery for those unwilling or unable to visit in person
• Social selling through platforms customers already use daily

It gives consumers convenience and increases visibility. It allows your business to welcome both in-store and online customer groups. Done well, omnichannel increases the chances of making sales during any economic situation.

Focus on your strengths and community.

Play to your interpersonal strengths by cultivating strong community relationships.

Getting to know customers on a first-name basis builds trust over time. Also, participate in local events and initiatives to showcase your support. Customers are loyal to retailers who demonstrate care for the neighbourhood.

In tough times, these warm relationships may inspire customers to shop locally rather than elsewhere. Your dedication to the community will not be forgotten when discretionary budgets relax again.

While 2024 may bring economic uncertainty, small retailers don't have to feel powerless. With adaptability, technology and a client-first mindset, you can gain an edge regardless of outside conditions. The future is unwritten, so take proactive steps towards your desired outcome.

I spoke briefly a few days ago of shrinkflation, the practice of suppliers today of hiding increases in retail prices by secretly reducing what you get. It generated some discussion, so I decided today to show examples of how it is done so you know the problem when your customers ask you about it.

What is shrinkflation, and how does it affect retailers?

Shrinkflation refers to the deceptive practice of companies secretly reducing the amount of a product while keeping the same price or even raising it. This allows suppliers to increase profits without customers realizing it's a price hike.

As a small retailer, shrinkflation can impact you and your customers in a few key ways:

Reduced trust. When customers notice items they regularly purchase have gotten smaller or contain less quantity, it erodes trust in brands. This could cause them to be hesitant to buy from your store in the future.

Higher costs. If your suppliers engage in shrinkflation, you pay the same or more for products containing less. This cuts into your margins without you even knowing.

Difficulty managing inventory. It's harder to accurately track inventory levels and order appropriate quantities when changing product sizes without notice. This can lead to stock-outs.

Disgruntled customers. People notice when their money isn't going as far at the grocery store or other retailers. Shrinkflation leads to complaints you have to field from customers who feel they are getting a raw deal.

It messes up your pricing. If you are not careful, your pricing can be wrong. I have seen examples of retailers reducing the price of the old product, which has more in it, as they think the new product is better. It is not it is just secretly smaller.

Some examples of shrinkflation

The older bottle had ten more pills, about a 9% price increase. What is interesting here is that the new bottle with less in it is a bigger bottle.

The new bottle has about 5% less product, and the packaging has been redesigned, too, as in the above example.

This one is quite tricky, see it you can pick it up.

The tube size of the older one is smaller than the hole of the newer one. It probably will look the same size, but there is less paper.

This is just a price rise by reducing the product supplied.

This one is actually a significant price rise of 25%.

My last example shows, over time, just how significant these secret changes can be 

Measured up, this is about an 80% price increase.

Conclusion

To protect your business and customers from the impacts of shrinkflation, you need to carefully monitor unit sizes and quantities of the products you re-order.

You can find many more examples if you want to investigate further here, were people are encouraged to report such practices.

Here is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) latest economic snapshot. I like it as it provides a simple view of the Australian economy. The full details are above, and supporting information here.

For us in retail, there are some concerning signs and a few positive takeaways in the report. Let's get into it.

Interest Rates on the Rise

As we're all painfully aware, interest rates have steadily climbed over the past year. Higher interest rates increase our loan repayments and cut into our profits. Most economists seem to think that one more rate rise is ahead, but who knows what the RBA will say. I doubt it can go up much more. 

Inflation Taking Its Toll

The snapshot shows inflation is high, only slightly down from a year ago. The government policy of allowing interest rates to go up to reduce inflation is not working well at all. 

Inflation is a worry as rapid inflation erodes consumer purchasing power. This puts pressure on retailers as consumers become more selective with their spending. I suspect more shrink inflation (when the product stays at the same price but gets smaller, have you noticed our burger size is sinking), and we need to source cheaper products?

Wage Growth Failing to Keep Pace

Wage growth is up, which is usually positive news. But with inflation running so high, we are falling behind even with the wage growth. This means Australians will have less actual purchasing power. Retailers, therefore, can't rely on rising wages to drive spending growth. 

The other problem is that wage growth is higher than our national growth. Businesses will have to increase salaries without the increase in revenue to pay for it. This is just pure inflationary and cannot be maintained without increasing unemployment. 

Household Savings Declining

The household saving ratio is meagre. We cannot count on people using their savings as before to maintain spending.

Strong Population Growth

Australia's annual population growth is up, a positive for retailers. More people means more potential customers and demand for consumer goods and services.

Conclusion

Overall, the snapshot presents a mixed view for Australian retailers. 

What's your perspective on what the RBA report means for retailers? I am keen to hear your insights!

Uncertainty Ahead as Shoppers Face Mortgage Stress

According to expert analysis from Roy Morgan Research, the forecast for Australian retail in 2023 is one of continuing uncertainty. Cost-of-living pressures and rising interest rates are expected to dampen consumer confidence and discretionary spending.

Here is my summary of the report, you can read it here plus my notes of how I expect it to affect my clients.

Mortgage Stress Reaching 15-Year Highs

• 29.2% of mortgage holders are now at risk of mortgage stress, up 642,000 in one year.
• Highest level of mortgage stress since August 2008.
• Caused by 12 RBA interest rate rises over the past year.

This increase in mortgage stress reduces people's discretionary income to spend on retail goods. As more household budgets are stretched paying the mortgage or rent, retail spending is impacted.

Consumer Confidence Remaining Near Record Lows

• ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index below 80 for 27 consecutive weeks.
• Longest period below 80 since tracking began in 2008.
• Ongoing uncertainty around further interest rate rises undermines confidence.

Consumers lacking confidence in the economic outlook tend to restrain their spending, providing another problem for Australian retail.

A 'Softening' Rather Than a 'Cliff' for Retail Spending

While these pressures are taking a toll, the feared "spending cliff" has been avoided so far, according to Roy Morgan. Spending volumes and growth have slowed, but this is more of a "softening" and gradual return to trend.

Some factors propping up retail spending include:

• Strong population growth continuing, increasing demand.
• Grocery spending remaining steady as food is an essential purchase.

Although not mentioned here in this report, items affecting kids education have not been affected.

Travel Reclaiming Its Share of Wallet

One area clearly impacting discretionary retail spending is travel. After COVID lockdowns, travel demand has roared back.

Roy Morgan data shows travel spending up $30 billion in the year to June 2023 compared to the previous year. As holidays claim more of people's budgets, this leaves less available for clothing, dining out, electronics and other discretionary purchases.

Although not mentioned in this report, the big spending overseas tourist from China are unlikely due to the Chinese economic problems to come to Australia.

Overall Retail Sales Forecast to Decline 1.4% in 2023 After Inflation

While retail spending is expected to grow 2.8% before inflation, Roy Morgan forecasts a 1.4% decline after factoring in 4.1% inflation predicted by the RBA.

This indicates a return to trend after the aberrations of COVID stimulus and reopenings. Before you get upset by this note that retail sales are still 15% above the pre-COVID trend, showing the ground is still made.

Essentials Like Food to Outperform Discretionary Categories

Food retail spending is forecast to grow 4.8% before inflation, and 0.5% after. Consumers still need groceries despite cost of living impacts.

Meanwhile discretionary non-food categories like household goods, clothing and dining out are predicted to decline 2.7% in real terms. These categories surged earlier in reopening so some correction is expected.

The Path Ahead for Australian Retailers

While the retail environment remains challenging, the forecast is for a very modest rather than dramatic downturn. Food and necessity spending shows some resilience, while discretionary categories are pulling back as spending patterns normalise post-pandemic. 

According to new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), overall retail sales increased by 2.3% in June 2023 compared to June 2022.  The main drivers were food and restaurant/takeaway spending. These categories saw strong growth, but most other sectors were in decline. If you follow this, and I will show you have to compare your shop to these figures in your POS Software, but let us do some background first.

The figures are to be expected I think as I stated "With higher prices lately, we've noticed customers buying less discretionary stuff and just sticking to the basics. People are being more careful with their money."

Many of our clients would be in the sector called Other retailing, this is how its graph looks.

Monthly Sales Dropped Slightly

• Retail sales in June decreased by 0.8% from May.

• But a small monthly drop in June can be expected; it also dropped in June last year.

The ABS data showed Victoria had the most significant year-on-year decline out of all states. This aligns with what was expected, considering its recent economic struggles.

Key Takeaway for Retailers

Consider adopting some of these resilient categories like food products in your shop. I have several clients that have added many food products to their shops.

The full sector breakdown of the latest figures for retail sales is here on the ABS website, so check your sector out, find and download the relevant table of your shop.

Find out how you went to compare 

Go to your reports> Sales> Dissection Monthly Sales Trend (Graph)

Generally, when I start, I pick a very long period. I like to look at the long-term trend, so I used seven years here. This gives me an overall feel that I can use to compare with the ABS figures although I think you should be careful as from March 2020 to June 2022 we had a lot of disruption caused by COVID.

Now I get this graph. 

Something to chew about!

You will find here the latest  NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey Q2 2023 report.

Unfortunately, it does not state how many people they interviewed, but looking at it, my estimate is they had at least 1,000 respondents nationally. 

The conclusion is what I think we know for retailers is that the cost-of-living crisis is squeezing Aussie wallets. Many households are now making hard choices about where to cut spending. 

But there are some essentials Australians remain reluctant to cut, no matter how high prices rise.

Education Tops the List 

Education remains untouchable despite cash-strapped consumers slashing spending on dining out, entertainment and travel. Australians view education as a top investment priority, the foundation for their children's futures.

Kids' Activities Next  

After education, children's extracurricular activities like sports and hobbies were the second most protected area, with only 12% of parents cutting back on these enrichment pursuits. Maintaining regular routines and social connections becomes even more critical for children's well-being in worrying economic times.

Aussie parents aim to keep providing for basic needs like food, clothing, childcare and education supplies. A net 2% foresee spending more on children in coming months - cutting costs elsewhere before reducing kids' necessities.

Beloved Pets 

In third place was spending on pets, with only 18% reducing pet outlays. For most Australians, pets are cherished family members more than possessions. So pet food, grooming and healthcare remain priorities to keep furry companions happy and healthy.

Groceries Gathered 

Grocery budgets are stretching, but consumers are still finding ways to gather their usual essentials. While switching brands more, a net 3% intend to spend more on groceries, likely due to non-discretionary needs.

Debt Paid Down

Aussies intend to spend less to pay our sharply rising interest rates. This Australia sees their debt as an urgent priority.

So other interesting facts

Local Small Businesses

While support has dropped compared to pandemic peaks, a net 13% of consumers still aim to shop local small businesses. This channel retains backing.

Australian-made is important.

Consumers still want to buy Australian-made goods.

To summarise

This quarterly survey shows Australian consumers are increasingly worried about rising living costs, with 1 in 3 reporting very high stress and the majority expecting high inflation to persist. To cope, shoppers are becoming more discerning, researching carefully, pursuing deals and switching to cheaper brands. Fewer are trying new products or stores as the focus turns to value. This pressures retailers to highlight affordability and savings, streamline to popular items, and build loyalty incentives. Consumers are hunting bargains. With household budgets stretched thin, success will come to retailers who understand the current mindset and creatively adapt pricing, assortments, channels and promotions to deliver what today's highly cost-conscious Australian shopper now seeks.

I was invited to a webinar on the Silver Tsunami the other day. It was interesting. The webinar was about the fact that the people born between 1946 and 1964, known as the Baby Boomer generation, are the wealthiest generation in Australian history. According to the ABS, about 5.7 million Baby Boomers in Australia make up about 22% of the population. The ABS reckons that around 800 baby boomers are retiring every day. A detailed study is here. 

So over the next ten years, it is expected that we will see the most significant transfer of wealth in Australian history. This is called the Silver Tsunami.

Why does it matter for small businesses?

The silver tsunami has significant implications for the small business sector, a vital part of the Aussie economy. 

According to a report by KPMG, baby boomers own 40% of all the small businesses in Australia, which is around 420,000 businesses. These businesses employ about 1.4 million people and generate about $500 billion annually.

This means we can expect many more small businesses on the market than usual up for grabs in the next decade as baby boomer owners look to retire or cash out. We are looking at a buyer's market, where potential buyers can negotiate better prices and terms for acquiring a business. Although Generation X (born 1965-1979) will have a lot of money, it is not expected to compensate for the increased supply.

How can you prepare for the silver tsunami?

If you are a baby boomer business owner who is planning to exit your business in the next decade, here are some tips to help you prepare:

• Five to ten years is a long time in business.
• Do not panic as we are already in it,
• Start planning. Ideally, it would be best to start planning an exit strategy to give you enough time to maximise the value of your business.
• You should seek professional advice from your accountant.
• An exploratory discussion with a business agent would help. Find a good one, and they will tell you now the score and what they see in the future.
• Now ask yourself what I can do to give this business marketability in five years. For example, in my observation, a lotto agency with gifts is much more marketable than a gift shop, even if they are equally profitable. 
• A business plan would help.

Conclusion

The silver tsunami will significantly impact the Aussie business scene in the next decade. 

Prepare!

When COVID-19 first hit, it was immediately apparent that retail was about to undergo a significant transformation. With extended lockdowns planned and limitations on in-person shopping going on for months, it was anticipated that the public would change its shopping habits. After all, it takes about one to eight months for people to foster new shopping habits; this would be longer. So changes were happening, and we all knew it would, but what would happen? No one was sure.

Even now, three years later, yes, it is now three years of COVID; it is clear that the retail industry is still dealing with the pandemic's long-term effects; we call it the new normal.

Some problem that is now particularly clear is that we are all experiencing persistent supply chain disruptions. Both interest rates and inflation have risen to levels not seen in years.  Many people struggle with high debt levels, and economic growth is very patchy. Tourism is another area that this pandemic has notably changed. Chinese tourists, specifically their nonappearance, have definitely been felt. The internet and online shopping have grown. People now shop differently in brick-and-mortar shops. 

If you are interested in learning more about the retail industry's future, the new normal, you will find this helpful this talk.

Any comments, I'm always happy to talk more about it with anyone interested.

For retail, the lousy figures compared to pre-COVID are interest rates, inflation, unemployment, wage growth and the Australian Dollar. The good news is that people have plenty in the bank saved, and the economy is moving forward. Still, Australians will have less money in the short term unless they dip into their savings, but only some think they will do this. So people will be cutting back on non-essential spending in the short term.

Retail must take a more strategic approach to navigate this current economic situation.

Australians are expected to alter their spending patterns in response to these pressures. People will spend less on things that aren't necessary. I suggest in the near future look at these products. One item I do not know is why more of my clients do not move more into toiletry. Nice soaps, towels, hand sanitisers, etc. These items do move and have good margins.

Also, fewer big purchases to drive customers to the major centres will make local traffic more critical. So you are going to have to connect with your local customers more.

If you are considering some major expansion now in business, you need to consider that getting the money to make any significant investment now will be expensive. Interest rates are not expected to go down for a year.

It is hard to say what will happen in the medium and long term; the government's fixation now is to get inflation down, even if it means driving us into a recession. 

Everyone expected December's latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics would be down because we had impressive numbers from November. There was a 7.7% increase from Nov-2021 to Nov-2022. This then was unexpected.  So many expected much of that growth in November to be early December sales. So they said the consumers had moved forward with their purchases to take advantage of the big Black Friday sales. Everyone accepts that these Black Friday sales were huge. But, the latest retail figures have defied expectations and showed a significant 7.5% increase from Dec-2021 to Dec-2022. So that is not it.

While these numbers are cause for celebration, there is a different story to be told. According to the seasonally adjusted figures, Australian retail turnover fell 3.9% in December 2022. This discrepancy will have economists scratching their heads and debating the reasons behind the drop.

Despite this recent dip, it's important to note that the ABS table shows 11 months of retail growth and only one drop. This is a remarkable accomplishment for the year. 

Still, we can say that the Australian retail sector has been resilient. It has adapted to the challenges brought on by the pandemic and continues to grow.

I would like to hear about this and our inflation rate of about 7%. I bet I will not. 

In conclusion, the latest figures may be mixed, but they still paint a good picture of the Australian retail sector. We have had 11 months of growth in retail and only one drop in December. 

Here is the link, it is just out, and make your mind up.

Update

The economists think it is one of those bitter, sweet situations. All they looked at was the seasonally adjusted figure for December, so what they saw was the most significant decline in Australia since August 2020. Also, they noted that Australian inflation is now at a nearly 33-year high in the December quarter, by increasing to a rate of 7.8 per cent. I think we can expect another interest rate increase.

​

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) now released its latest inflation report.

Now officially, we now have the highest inflation in 33 years. Anyone who can remember the 1970s knows how disturbing this can be for the economy.

Unlike the last peak, these figures show indications of continuing up. We now have a significant risk of recession. Interest rates are up, and the country's debt is now a trillion dollars. Servicing that trillion figure will be expensive. Plus, unemployment is starting to rise, and wage growth is slowing down which is worrying for retail as wage growth has not kept up with inflation. Then we have electricity prices which are expected to go up by 56 per cent. Do you see anything coming down?

What retailers need to consider now are the products they are dealing with and whether these products' prices can be raised as inflation increases.

Pre-Christmas sales forecast to reach $63.9 billion – this is up 3%

Australian retail sales are set to remain strong over the festive trading period, with Australian consumers set to spend over $1 billion a day on retail in the run-up to Christmas despite extensive cost-of-living challenges according to Roy Morgan’s 2022 pre-Christmas sales forecasts released in collaboration with the Australian Retailers Association (ARA).

Australians are forecast to spend $63.9 billion in pre-Christmas sales (November 14 – December 24), up 3% from last year. Hospitality businesses are set to flourish in the run-up to Christmas, with over $9 billion in trade – up 16.3% in 2021.

Out of the states and territories, South Australia is set to record the most significant growth in sales last year (up 6.6%), followed by the Northern Territory (up 6.5%). Consumers in NSW are forecast to spend nearly $20 billion in pre-Christmas sales (up 3.1% in 2021), with Victorians to fork out $16.5 billion (up 0.8%) and Queenslanders $13.3 billion (up 4.6%).

More details are here.

One point before you get excited is that based on the latest predictions, the interest cash rate in Australia is expected to climb to 3.35%, labour has already risen about 2.7% in the first six months of the year with more to follow, rents are forecast to grow by 11% this year, and inflation possibly surging to 7% by the end of 2022, which is not likely to fall until early in 2023.

Make your own mind up.

My previous article generated a lot of discussion with its conclusion that modern retailers needed a BNPL option and that layby today is, at best, minor. Not everyone liked my conclusion, but they are wrong. In modern retailing, BNPL is not going to be replaced by layby. There is no layby renaissance coming soon.

Here is a google trend of interest in layby vs the major BNPL providers over the past year.

In blue, you will see layby and compare it to Afterpay in red. If you want the exact figures, layby has 2% interest, Afterpay 74%, Zip 9%, etc.

Here is the latest report by Roy Morgan on BNPL.

Summary : The latest Roy Morgan Digital Payments Report shows 17.5 million Australians aged 14+ (82.8%) are now aware of buy-now-pay-later services such as Afterpay, Zip, Latitude Pay, Humm and Klarna.

...

The takeover hasn’t impacted upon growing awareness of Afterpay, now at 81.1%, up 7.7% points from a year ago in June 2021, and up a massive 47.3% points since September 2018.

 

Here is how it is breaking down today by usage.

Make your mind up. Read  the report, available from Roy Morgan 9027-digital-payment-solutions-june-2022

We do not see that a modern retailer can ignore these figures, so our advice is unchanged: you must investigate BNPL. Whatever you think of the Afterpay business model, most of the BNPL business now is there. 

There is no lockdown, but it is not like people are getting out. I thought it was an overreaction, but one of our staff got COVID. So not knowing what to do, we told our staff if they feel that they can do their work at home, to work from home if not then to come to work. 

I went to a client shop on Friday, and it was empty in the shopping centre, no one was coming out. I got called up the next day, so I went back only to see the shopping centre completely full. What is going on? I was told that this is not uncommon in the centre even before COVID. Then when I went back yesterday, it did not look too busy to me. 

May be we are looking at some lockdown-style hesitancy due to Omicron, or are we looking at a new cultural norm?

Anyway, I took some pictures. This is Parkmore Shopping centre which is a large shopping centre in the Melbourne metro.

Enjoy.

The latest CPI figures are out here.

I think you will find it helpful to look through it to see the official inflation rates. I would be interested in your views.

Looking at the figures, the main driver now of inflation appears to be petrol if so there is little as a community we can do about it. Looking at the other figures, I do not know your views, but they do not appear correct. For example, insurance, from what my clients have been telling me, insurance seems to be higher than 2.2%. Also, food seems to be up much more than 1.9% they have quoted. Have you tried buying steak or mincemeat recently?

Anyway, these are the official figures from which many items such as our rents will be determined.

If you want a good site at giving you price history for many items, visit this site here. People find it useful for pricing toys so I have been recommending it to my clients to see the current prices for old items in their shop.

Although we have used our cards more than ever what is interesting is that our debt has dropped. In March 2019, we owed to the banks $40 billion, today it's a third less about $27 billion.  It appears that we have been since March 2020 banking our extra money. They have not been eating out, driving less, not going on vacations, no casinos, etc. Maybe also using buy now and pay later (BNPL) cards more although that would be enough to make such a dent on this debt.

What it does show is that the Australians do have the money and credit, now are they going to spend it on Christmas or keep spending it on real estate?

Still, the reason most retailers are positive that it will be a good Christmas is that early sales from Black Friday are good, people do want to make up for the disappointment of 2020, people have big savings in the family and our workforce participation rate is good.

The potential bomb is the inflation rate. Those of us that lived through the massive inflation of the 1970s can relate to how destructive inflation can be. Current at 1.1%, it looks alright now, but I am sure we will hear much about it soon. The reasonably strong Australian dollar will help here. The Chinese GDP growth figure is impossible, no way it is going to be anything like that. It is pleasing that we are doing much better than our peers like Canada, France, Italy, UK, etc.

The unemployment rate is higher for retail than we would like, but it is going down fast. Average weekly earnings are slightly up. Household savings are up. So we can say the Australian public has money to spend. This should help retail as the number of new customers will be going up.

These figures are better than we would have forecasted at the beginning of the year. 

Still, it would be nice to get those tourists back. The earliest we can start to see them back if everything goes well is the end of this year.

Freight makes up about 9% of the Australian economy. That does not include much of the last mile delivery costs.

The problem of deliveries delays is something we all have experienced and talked about here. 

What is also shocking is the increase in the cost of freight. If you are in a low margin industry like ours and many of you are, it does not take much of an increase to destroy your margin. 

Here is a chart of costs what we are looking at now for freight. 

I circled in red, what happened since the pandemic hit. We are looking at a now a 30% increase. Is it stabilised or going up, who knows, but it is no wonder that all these experts are concerned. 

The big issue with most of my clients is not whether it goes up but whether it goes evenly up. The fact is that in crisis, it never does. As such, the guy up the road might have the same item much cheaper. Some suppliers are idiots, one thing I have learnt over the years, is never overestimate the intelligence of a person with a billion dollars. Some suppliers have long term contracts in place. Many do not. Some have large stock they need to get rid of sitting here while again many do not, etc., etc. 

What I do know is when a crisis happens, it pays to shop around. For example, I have grabbed some scanners at an excellent price if you are interested, click here,

I'm afraid I have to disagree with this video.

This shock of COVID-19 is leading to structural changes in the economy, but his arguments are well expressed. So although it is off-topic, this is something for you to think.

We all know people that are doing it tough. Government handouts are no substitute for a job. In Australia, 37,000 deaths in the US would be about 2,800 people.

Anyway look at the video and make your mind up and please let me know what you think.